RESEARCH
Research
Sector analysis on private capital in the Australian lower middle market.
Each issue argues one thesis in full. What we believe the binding constraint to be, what the sector believes instead, the evidence for each position, and the conditions under which our view would be wrong. Sources are named so the numbers can be checked.
We write it for owners, operators, advisers and investors in the sectors we cover. It is not marketing material and it is not a summary of other people's work. Where our conclusion is that a sector is not investable at present, we say that.
ISSUES
ISSUE 04 · October 2026 · Construction and civil services
Everyone can read the insolvency figures. Almost nobody prices what sits underneath them.
Construction leads every insolvency table in Australia, and the businesses that build roads, pipelines and mine site works in Western Australia are not the ones failing. That much is now widely enough understood to be reflected in what these companies sell for. What is not reflected is how differently two otherwise identical contractors are valued depending on how they are put together.
Read issue 04ISSUE 03 · September 2026 · Modular healthcare
Half the cost. Five times the speed. Why Australia still isn't building the beds.
Modular construction can deliver an aged care bed for under half the cost of a traditional build, in roughly a fifth of the time. We argue the cost case is settled and beside the point, because the operators who need to build cannot fund a bed at any price.
Read issue 03ISSUE 02 · June 2026 · Regulated financial services
The quiet revolution in Australian lending.
Australia has one of the world's most sophisticated banking systems and a materially underdeveloped non-bank lending sector alongside it. An examination of where the credit gap sits, who it excludes, and why the defensible asset is decisioning infrastructure rather than deposits.
Read issue 02ISSUE 01 · March 2026 · Preparing for sale
The best time to prepare your business for sale was three years ago.
Twelve businesses reviewed across five sectors, and five failure points that recurred through almost every deal that did not proceed. Written from the buy side, for sellers.
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